Fabio Manganiello<p>An <a class="hashtag" href="https://manganiello.social/tag/xkcd" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#xkcd</a> comic, as usual, can explain the absurdity of politics better than a thousand words.</p><ul><li><p>“You know that pizza restaurant you order from? What do they actually do for your business?”</p></li><li><p>“Well…they sell us pizza?”</p></li><li><p>“But do they buy something from you in exchange?”</p></li><li><p>“Why would they? We make tools for geographical surveys”</p></li><li><p>“Then it’s not fair trade! You should ask the pizzeria to buy your geographical survey tools, or next time you should refuse their pizza unless they swipe an equivalent amount of money to your company’s account!”</p></li></ul><p>And btw, I really want Trump’s tariffs to remain.</p><p>For the simple reason that they’re going to hurt Americans much more than Europeans.</p><p>And they give us a once-in-a-lifetime chance to decouple our economies from the fascist cesspit on the other side of the pond.</p><p>Trump is so immersed in his fanta-politic narcissistic delusions (“everybody’s calling me to kiss my ass!”) that he hasn’t yet realized the damage he has just done to his economy.</p><p>What will probably happen:</p><ul><li><p>Blanket tariffs on raw materials imported from their top trade partners means lower supply for American industries as well. Steel, aluminum and rare earths from Europe, Canada and China are used to build American cars and all kinds of American goods. Lower supply because of tariffs means higher provisioning costs. And creating new local supply chains for raw materials takes years or decades. Rather than cutting their own bottom line, American companies will simply pass on those higher costs on American consumers. Who will see their purchasing power eroded even further - so much for “we vote for Trump because he won’t make us any poorer”.</p></li><li><p>Almost no businesses will relocate to the US. For the simple reason that manufacturing costs are higher over there, and that the Trump regime clearly can’t guarantee enough stability to operate any kind of business. If he wakes up in the morning and he reads the wrong conspiracy bullshit on X, your business will be unjustly punished. Nobody likes to do business in such an environment.</p></li><li><p>Instead, if Europe plays its cards right, lowers the barriers for trade across member States and temporarily puts on hold some of its most stringent regulation, capitals are just likely to move from the US to the EU. And some of this is already happening - the S&P 500 index has gone down by 18% since January (the worst dip since the pandemic), while EU stocks are gaining ground. Now it’s just up to the EU to make it more attractive to invest here.</p></li><li><p>The US has indeed a trade deficit with the EU when it comes to goods (~$150B), but it has a big trade surplus when it comes to services (~$100B). Each tariff on EU goods should be reciprocated with more taxes on American Big Tech’s advertising revenue. The EU makes up 15-25% of the market for the likes of Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. Hit them where it hurts them the most. End-of-supply-chain services are much easier to replace than material goods that sit higher in the supply chains. We can live without the spyware produced by those companies. Heck, it’s actually a golden chance to invest into <em>OUR OWN</em> sustainable European tech. Replace AWS with Scaleway, Microsoft 360 with Nextcloud, Google search with Ecosia, Apple phones with Nokia, Pine and Fairphone, Facebook with Mastodon, WhatsApp with Signal and Matrix, etc. We finally have a chance for the EU to put its wallet where its mouth is. With the CHIPS act Biden allocated within a few days $280B to boost Intel. With NGI (Next Generation Internet), the EU is talking instead about allocating ~$27M for “human-centric technology aligned with Europe’s values” - and even that funding is uncertain, after nearly 3 years of discussions. Let’s start adding 4 zeros to that sum, let’s make sure that such funds can be allocated within weeks instead of years, through COMMON DEBT (which means that Germany and the Netherlands needs to learn the art of shutting the fuck up about pointless austerity and stability rules the next time that Europeans want to talk about Eurobonds), and then we can start talking about being competitive.</p></li><li><p>Trump’s regime is heavily cutting funding to university, research and public education on ideological grounds. Lots of smart people are losing their jobs, detained on ideological grounds (participating to a campus protest in support of Palestine is enough), and there’s no guarantee for those who travel to the US for academic conferences or job interviews not to be detained at the airport (a single social media post critical of Trump is enough). This is the golden chance for Europe to reverse the brain drain and attract smart people to the old continent. The EU should work to boost salaries in highly-skilled jobs to compete with those in America, and open more position for foreign researchers and professors. EU countries should offer more courses in English instead of supporting short-sighted policies to boost their local languages and dialects in academia, thus increasing entry barriers for those who are seeking for a new safe haven. The EU should also lobby to host more scientific conferences currently hosted in the US (from the IEEE/IETF to the Las Vegas events), on the grounds that we treat those who travel here better than our American counterparts, and can guarantee their safety and freedom of speech and movement better than them. I have literally zero sympathy for any American who voted for Trump (for the second time). I barely consider them human beings. I don’t even want to hear their stupid reasons, and at this point I don’t even care if they starve off or die because of their self-inflicted imbecility. But I genuinely care for those who feel imprisoned in an authoritarian idiocracy against their will and are willing to migrate. We should welcome them.</p></li><li><p>The EU economy exports more than imports mainly because the average purchasing power of European citizens adjusted against inflation hasn’t increased in years. So EU companies tend to export instead of producing goods for a dwingling local market. Temporarily strip off any constraints about debt expenditure and put more money in European pockets to boost demand, and we can reverse that trend. We don’t need to be export-dependent if those who buy from us are neither credible nor reliable. Unpredictable business partners are a liability, not an asset.</p></li><li><p>Joint tariffs against the EU <em>AND</em> China mean cheaper goods from China flooding Europe. China’s economy is even more export-dependent than ours. High barriers in America against their products mean that a lot of those goods will simply be redirected to the European market. Of course this comes with its own trade-offs (we shouldn’t be complacent again, we shouldn’t rely on the cheap American military shield, on cheap Russian gas nor on cheap Chinese goods without boosting our own military, energy infrastructure and industries), but we have the luxury of deciding what and how much we want to boost locally, and what we’re fine to buy from other countries also impacted by Trump’s tariffs. American consumers, on the other hand, are set to suffer from shorter, weaker, more expensive and more localized supply chains, and they’re soon going to realize that there are no “jobs coming back to the US” (at least surely not with this strategy).</p></li></ul><p>I want Mr Trump to keep these tariffs in place. And I want Europe to boldly retaliate each single time, instead of witnessing the pathetic spectacles of sub-humans like Salvini and Orban kissing Trump’s ass to beg for exemptions (that’s exactly what Trump’s under-developed brain and fat ego want). And I want Europe to boldly invest in draining talent and capital out of the US instead of spending 3 years in discussion to allocate peanuts. If we play our cards right, this could really be the best blessing in disguise we could ask for.</p><p><a href="https://xkcd.com/3073/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://xkcd.com/3073/</a></p>